Corn • Soybeans • Wheat
Harvest progress and crop condition updates have kept the wheat market within .03 of where the week opened. Corn and Soybeans are getting ample amounts of moisture across NY, and could be considered over saturated in some areas. Tensions continue to stay high in the middle east as peace talks continue. Russia and Ukraine are now facing serious logistical issues for their farms as supplies of diesel fuel in the region are reaching critical levels.
Corn
Corn futures have struggled to maintain rallies as traders continue to dial in expectations for a large U.S. crop. Strong yield prospects in many areas have kept a lid on prices despite pockets of weather stress. Export demand has remained steady, but not strong enough to offset growing supply expectations.
Farmer takeaway:
· Harvest pressure is expected to build as we move toward fall.
· Export demand and final yield estimates remain major market movers.
Soybeans
Soybean prices have been supported by continued export interest and uncertainty surrounding late-season weather, but large South American supplies and expectations for a sizable U.S. crop continue to limit upside potential.
Farmer takeaway:
· August weather remains critical for pod filling and final yields.
· Chinese demand continues to be closely watched.
· Soybean oil volatility has added uncertainty to the complex.
Wheat
Wheat futures have shown more strength than corn and soybeans recently as global supply concerns continue to surface. Weather issues in portions of key exporting regions have provided support, although plentiful world stocks continue to cap rallies.
Farmer takeaway:
· Global weather remains a major driver.
· European and Black Sea production estimates are closely monitored.
· Wheat continues to find support from feed demand when price relationships are favorable.
What We’re Watching Next
· Weather remains the biggest variable for the grain trade. While much of the Corn Belt has benefited from favorable growing conditions, final yield potential will depend on August
· Monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports
· Export sales remain critical, especially for corn and soybeans. Markets will be watching; Chinese soybean purchases, Corn export competitiveness versus South America, as well as wheat demand from key importing countries
Marketing Thought
With harvest approaching, seasonal pressure is likely to remain a factor in grain markets. Current futures values sit closer to the middle of recent trading ranges than either extreme, suggesting opportunities may still develop if weather concerns, export demand, or production estimates shift during the next several weeks.
Continue evaluating old-crop inventories and developing new-crop marketing plans that fit their operation's cash flow needs and profit objectives.
Contact our merchandising team for current bids, basis levels, and contract alternatives.
Futures and basis are subject to change. This update is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell futures or cash grain.
