Corn  bulls added another +25 cents to price last week as The Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimates a 173.2 bushel per acre yield for US new-crop vs. the USD currently forecasting a 180.7 bushel per acre new-crop corn yield. If you want to extrapolate, assume no change in the USDA's current demand forecasts, and use the mid-point of the crop tour's US total production estimate of just 15.344 billion bushels harvested in 2026 (vs. current USDA forecast of 16.013 billion bushels), you could pencil in US ending stocks of around 984 million bushels and a stocks-to-use of just 6.0%. While fun for bulls to talk about, this comes with a bit of concern. As a spec trader with what has been a personal bullish tilt, I worry that while the crop tour yield forecast of 173.2 is currently being played as a nearby bullish wild-card, it could ultimately create a type of "bullish disappointment" if it is never actually realized. In other words, if the USDA doesn't take a big step in that direction fairly soon, the bulls could get disappointed and somewhat bored with the headlines. With a 173 now on the table, what comes next on the supply side to attract more bullish money-flow? Moral of the story, I am fundamentally bullish on DEC26, but tactically cautious at the present price and currently have no positions on as I recently booked profits, and actually thought about shorting the market on Sunday night, for a short-term trade, thinking we could be a bit overextended and may need to back and fill. The 173 also changes my perspective about waiting for the upcoming Sept 11 USDA report for another yield cut. As I mentioned above, it changes psychologically how the bulls might react if the USDA only makes a half-bushel reduction to its current yield forecast. Even though it's a step in the right direction, the bullish trade could respond differently, as it could be viewed and digested as a disappointment. I've certainly learned (paid for the experience) through the years that when real-world outcomes fall short of expectations, the bulls can quickly become disappointed. Keep in mind, corn bulls are also currently enjoying some war-related risk premium in play with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the escalating military action in the Black Sea region. What happens if we have reached "peak worries" regarding the conflicts in both regions and things start to calm down? I have to imagine at least some of the bullish money currently in the corn market heads for the exits. Bottom line, I'm now worried that if the US yield lands somewhere in the 179 to 182 range, price north of +$5.40 could be a bit overly optimistic and overstated. On the flip side, a yield sub-175, could push prices up into the $5.40 to $6.40 range. And if you find yourself somewhere in the 175 to 179 range, then you could probably argue prices in the $5.25 to $5.75 range, maybe even closer to $6.00 if the geopolitical war premium remains in the market. As a producer, I can't necessarily afford to hang our profits on forecasting where the USDA will move its yield and total US new-crop production forecast; therefore, my price target at $5.20 vs. the DEC26 contract was triggered in the overnight session, and I made the sale, which brings us to between 65% and 70% priced. My DEC27 price target at $5.15 was also triggered, bringing us to about 30% priced and getting us off to a much better start than the past few years. I know it seems awfully bullish at the moment, but as I constantly remind myself, it's always the most bullish at the top, and always the most bearish at the bottom...