In the month of July we saw increased volatility in the grain complex, with ranges of over $1.00 from highs to lows in both soybeans and wheat, and just over $0.50 for corn. The common detonator across the 3 is weather uncertainty and the quality of crop throughout the Midwest.
Corn
Corn posted a loss of $0.19 on the week as funds felt more comfortable with their position as the week carried on. Weather will continue to drive the market as we enter pollination and there seems to a split report between some areas in the corn belt in need of rains and others experiencing an over abundance. Export news seemed to provide a small reprieve on Tuesday, but ultimately month end profit taking drove prices lower.
Marketing Thought: Corn has rallied more than 60 cents from its summer low. Consider rewarding rallies with incremental sales and reevaluating 2026 production goals and cost of production for break-evens.
Soybeans
Weather concerns, continued export demand, and Chinese buying interest have pushed November futures to fresh contract highs last week and trading off those highs and closing down $0.61 for this week. The market has gained more than $1.50 per bushel from the late-June lows.
Marketing Thought: New-crop soybean prices are offering some of the best opportunities of the year. Consider making disciplined sales while also keeping target orders working to capture any market bounce back.
Wheat
Wheat harvest is slowly beginning wrap up here in WNY and the market highly volatile. Prices recently reached multi-year highs due to global weather concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and strong speculative buying. Thursday's session saw profit-taking, but wheat remains well above early summer levels.
Marketing Thought: Wheat values remain historically attractive. Continue monitoring future contracting opportunities and don’t hesitate to call in to discuss your marketing plan.
What We're Watching
Weather
The next several weeks remain critical for corn pollination and soybean pod development. Forecast changes are likely to create continued market volatility.
Export Demand
China continues to be a key driver in soybeans, while corn export demand remains supportive.
Fund Activity
Speculative funds have shifted from bearish positions earlier this summer to more neutral.
USDA Reports
Markets will closely watch weekly crop ratings and upcoming August yield estimates for confirmation of production potential.
Current futures values represent some of the strongest pricing opportunities seen in months. A disciplined, incremental marketing approach continues to make sense as weather risk remains front and center.
Contact our merchandising team for current cash bids, basis opportunities, forward contracts, and risk-management alternatives.
This commentary is for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell grain, futures, or options. Futures and basis are subject to change.