Corn • Soybeans • Wheat
Grains have posted moderate gains recently, now closing in on mid-July highs. Continued global instability with Russia/Ukraine, European crop conditions, and South American demand shifts have shifted market tone from neutral/bearish to neutral/bullish. Brazil has increased their domestic to a new high of E32 and will be eyeing a bump to E35 soon, while simultaneously the US will see our soybeans have their highest demand coming from the biofuels sector in history for the 26/27 crop season.
Corn
Corn futures have spent much of August firming as traders evaluate late-season crop conditions, solid export demand, and the latest yield expectations heading into harvest. Recent crop ratings have slipped modestly from earlier summer levels, helping support prices, while export inspections continue to run ahead of last year. France’s corn crop is now expecting to be a near record low as it continues to struggle with poor growing conditions.
Farmer takeaway:
· Corn values have remained near recent highs, showing resilience heading into new crop
· Export demand remains strong as a weaker US dollar and global disruptions allow for increased opportunity for US corn
Soybeans
Chinese buying has helped provide a floor during any recent dips in the market, maintaining their pace to meet marketing year purchase agreements. Crop tours are well underway across the Midwest and while not widespread there is some growing concern over pod count, and crop quality in key growing areas. Hedge funds are maintaining a vested interest and will look for any opportunity to make a move on their position.
Farmer takeaway:
· Weather remains critical for pod fill and crop sentiment
· Chinese demand continues to be closely watched.
· Domestic usage will be a key influence over this marketing year
Wheat
Wheat has regained momentum as traders monitor Black Sea export disruptions and global supply concerns. International developments have helped support futures despite large North American harvest activity.
Farmer takeaway:
· As bins fill up, monitor quality and make proper plans to core in a timely fashion
· Global Demand/Supply shifts will be primary driver over the coming months as harvest is wrapping up
What We’re Watching Next
· Monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports
· Harvest closing in for Corn & Soybeans locally, crops finishing over the next month
· South America begins their planting season soon, planting conditions will begin to draw attention
Marketing Thought
All three grain markets are trading much closer to their annual highs than their annual lows, reflecting generally supportive demand and weather concerns as harvest approaches. Soybeans remain the market leader, while corn and wheat have also improved from summer lows. As combines begin rolling, expect increased volatility and marketing opportunities tied to yield reports, harvest pressure, export demand, and global weather developments.
Contact our grain team to discuss cash bids, basis opportunities, contracting alternatives, and post-harvest marketing strategies.
Futures and basis are subject to change. This update is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell futures or cash grain.
