Grain markets will be closed Friday July 3rd in observance of the 250th celebration of the USA on the 4th. Markets have been trying to stabilize after the late-June selloff, helped by post-USDA-report short covering, weather uncertainty, and renewed demand chatter; however, futures are still trading well below spring highs.
Corn has bounced off the late-June lows, but the market remains defensive overall. USDA’s June 30 Acreage report showed corn planted area at 95.343 million acres, with stronger ethanol production also helping support nearby sentiment.
Farmer takeaway: Corn is still much closer to the recent low than the spring high. If futures continue to improve, consider rewarding strength with incremental sales rather than waiting for one large rally.
Cash Targets: Old Crop: 4.75 New Crop: 4.55
Soybeans
Soybeans have also recovered from recent lows, supported by short-covering, stronger product markets at times, and talk of renewed export interest. Soybean futures gained on July 1st, sparked by the USDA’s June Acreage report estimate of 85.36 million soybean acres.
Farmer takeaway: Soybeans are holding up better than corn on a relative basis, but the market remains well below May highs. Keep firm target offers working above the market.
Cash Targets: Old Crop: 11.65 New Crop: 11.45
Wheat
SRW wheat has stabilized near the $6.00 area after a volatile June. Wheat rallied after USDA reports trimmed U.S. wheat acreage and tightened the balance sheet, but harvest pressure and global supply competition continue to cap rallies. The U.S. wheat balance sheets tightened after acreage reductions, while also pointing to export competition and Black Sea uncertainty.
Farmer takeaway: Wheat has bounced but remains incredibly vulnerable to harvest pressure. As harvest season locally rapidly approaches, be sure to have a plan for bin space needed, and be aware of quality.
Cash Target: New Crop: 6.20
What We’re Watching Next
Weather: Heat and moisture forecasts will drive corn and soybean direction as July pollination and early reproductive stages approach.
Exports: Thursday export sales will be key, and any confirmed China buying will be important for soybeans and corn will provide a needed spark.
USDA follow-through: The market is still digesting the June 30 Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, with the next WASDE scheduled for July 10.
Outside markets: Crude oil, soybean oil, the U.S. dollar, freight, and fertilizer remain important drivers of futures and basis.
Marketing Thought
The recent bounce is encouraging, but futures remain closer to recent lows than highs. Use rallies to make disciplined sales, keep target offers working, and stay focused on basis opportunities.
Contact our merchandising team to talk more in depth about our local market.
Futures and basis are subject to change. This update is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell futures or cash grain.