Corn • Soybeans • Wheat
Grain markets bounced Thursday after testing recent lows earlier in the week. Corn and soybeans rallied on short-covering, export business, and a drier early-July weather outlook, while wheat posted modest strength but remains in a volatile harvest-season market. Even with Thursday’s bounce, all three markets remain well below recent highs and are still trading closer to the low end of the recent range than the high end.
Corn
Corn futures finished the week nearly 5 cents lower of where it opened Monday. USDA reported old-crop corn export sales at 743,097 MT for the week ending June 18, with Mexico the top buyer, while new-crop business was more than double the same week last year. Some analysts are showing the possibility of dryness hitting the corn belt in July which could give us market support if funds deem it cause for concern.
Farmer takeaway: Corn is still only modestly above recent lows. If futures firm further, consider pricing into the rallies with incremental sales, especially on any old crop left in the bin.
Soybeans
Soybeans also bounced Thursday, helped by short-covering, weather concerns, and strength in soybean products. Even with the rebound, soybeans remain well below recent highs. July soybeans settled at $11.24, about 96¢ below the recent high near $12.20, but only 22¢ above the recent low near $11.02½
Farmer takeaway: Soybeans are still above the recent low but well below mid-May highs. Watch for pricing opportunities and make you have coverage for this upcoming harvest.
Wheat
SRW wheat firmed Thursday, with contracts 4 to 5 cents higher at the close, but with much of the US harvesting, volatility took over and gave back 13 cents on Friday. USDA wheat export sales for the week ending June 18 were 504,489 MT, up from the prior week and nearly double the same week last year, with Mexico the top buyer.
Farmer takeaway: Wheat continues its pattern volatility as we move into our harvest season. Set price targets and make sure to watch quality.
What We’re Watching Next
Weather: Corn is 94% emerged and rated 68% good/excellent, while soybeans are 95% planted, 88% emerged, and 66% good/excellent; any turn hotter/drier or excessively wet will matter quickly as July approaches.
Exports: Corn and soybean export sales showed signs of life this week, including corn to Mexico and soybean sales to China/unknown destinations, but traders still want sustained demand confirmation.
Outside markets: A stronger U.S. dollar and weaker crude oil have weighed on grains and oilseeds because of export competitiveness and biofuel demand links.
USDA reports: The June 30 Acreage and Grain Stocks reports remain the next major scheduled market-moving events.
Marketing Thought
With futures still near the lower end of the recent range, basis, carry, and disciplined target orders matter. Corn is closest to its recent low, soybeans have pulled back sharply from spring highs, and wheat remains volatile with harvest and quality risk. Use rallies to reward the market in increments rather than waiting for one big move.
Contact our merchandising team for current bids, basis levels, and contract alternatives.
Futures and basis are subject to change. This update is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell futures or cash grain.