Corn • Soybeans • Wheat

Justin N

As harvest advances across much of the Corn Belt, grain markets continue to balance large U.S. supplies against steady demand and uncertainty surrounding export business, South American weather, and upcoming USDA reports. Futures remain well above summer lows in corn and soybeans but have pulled back from recent highs as harvest pressure builds.

Corn

December 2026 Corn futures closed below $5.00/bu for the first time since the middle of August. The market had rallied sharply from its August low as yield concerns and stronger demand surfaced, but prices have recently retreated following the September USDA stocks report and increased harvest movement. Some areas have started nosing in to test fields here in WNY, but not much is ready as it still has a way to dry down.

Key Market Drivers

  • U.S. harvest activity is adding seasonal pressure.

  • Export demand remains a key factor to monitor.

  • End users continue to view price breaks as buying opportunities.

  • Attention is turning toward the October USDA WASDE report.

Farmer takeaway:

Corn remains considerably above summer lows, but harvest pressure may limit upside until fresh demand emerges.

Soybeans

November 2026 Soybean futures closed near $12.77/bu. Soybeans have been the strongest performer among the major grains during the second half of 2026, supported by export demand and weather-related production concerns earlier in the season. Despite recent weakness, futures remain near the upper end of their yearly trading range. Locally some early beans have started coming off in select areas, seeing normal range in yields.

Key Market Drivers

  • Chinese demand and export sales remain critical.

  • South American planting weather will become increasingly important.

  • Harvest progress and producer selling are creating nearby pressure.

  • Soybean oil and renewable diesel demand continue to provide underlying support.

Farmer Takeaway:

Soybeans remain the strongest grain market fundamentally, but seasonal harvest pressure may create volatility during October.

Wheat

December 2026 CBOT Wheat futures closed near $6.83/bu, down $1.12 from Sep 2nd high. Wheat has struggled to maintain rallies amid ample world supplies and increased competition from Black Sea exporters. However, weather concerns in key production regions and steady global demand have helped support prices.

Key Market Drivers

  • Global export competition remains intense.

  • Northern Hemisphere winter wheat planting is underway.

  • Weather developments in major exporting countries continue to influence trade.

  • Fund positioning and currency markets remain important price factors.

Farmer Takeaway: Global supply is proving a cap to rallies, while weather issues help prevent significant downside.

What We’re Watching Next

·         October USDA WASDE Report (Oct. 9)

·         Ongoing U.S. harvest progress updates

·         South American planting weather developments

·         Weekly export sales and shipping pace

Contact our grain team to discuss cash bids, basis opportunities, contracting alternatives, and post-harvest marketing strategies.

Futures and basis are subject to change. This update is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell futures or cash grain.