Corn • Soybeans • Wheat
Justin N
As the Trump/Xi Summit draws to a close this Friday there has been no major news of trade deals, or other agreements made. If recent events provide an indicator, keep an eye on President Trumps social media accounts for updates in the coming days.
Corn
Trading occurred within a tighter range this week, staying within a 15¢ range and closing Friday within a penny of the open Monday. As we see combines rolling across the country with greater frequency, reports of yields, grain quality and any other unforeseen circumstances could be a catalyst for the speculators to dig a foothold and build a position. Around NY we are seeing silage start to come off in some areas, with average to above average yields.
Farmer takeaway:
· Within striking distance of recent highs, set targets to capture opportunities
· Logistics come to the forefront this time of the year, have a plan in place to ensure needs are covered
Soybeans
Soybeans started off Friday by dropping to a 2 week low before recovering and closing on the positive side for the day. No major news from the Trump/Xi summit has speculators walking on eggshells until an indication is made. While the export program drives headlines, something important to keep in mind is that for the first time in history the US is set to have the majority usage of soybeans go into domestic usage for biofuels. Across the country beans are starting to come off including some that were early plant here in NY. Early indication is showing that we may see average to above average yields in the area’s not affected by white mold.
Farmer takeaway:
· Get ready for swings in the market as harvest begins
· Set pricing targets to lock in any further rallies
Wheat
Western NY is now roughly 10% planted as silage and early beans getting out of fields allow for progress to be made. For the 3rd week in a row we have seen the wheat market close lower, now 91¢ from the high posted on September 2nd, and back to prices last seen in mid-August. Across north America wheat is vastly out of the field for the year, but over in Eastern Europe they are just now starting to hit fields. With wheat having different regions starting their harvest season staggered across the calendar it is proving that having sustained long term rallies are very difficult.
Farmer takeaway:
· Find opportunities in the market and capitalize on locking in profit
· As wheat gets in the ground, set targets to capitalize on any further jumps in the market
What We’re Watching Next
· Trump & Xi Summit updates
· Weekly Export report
· Sep 30th USDA Quarterly report
Marketing Thoughts
As harvest seasons gets rolling, watch for markets to face pressure from farm selling once bins are filled and grain flows to the market. Hedge funds are still near record longs with their holding, and inching closer towards the end of 2026 there could be a risk of fund sell-offs to show a tidy profit made for the year. Have your expected yields in mind and if you have extra “bonus bushels”, don’t be afraid to use those to boost your bank balance and capitalize on the unexpected gains. If you have any questions on markets, would like to create a grain merchandising plan, or would like to discuss placing targets please call our team!
Contact our grain team to discuss cash bids, basis opportunities, contracting alternatives, and post-harvest marketing strategies.
Futures and basis are subject to change. This update is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell futures or cash grain.
