Corn • Soybeans • Wheat

Hedge funds have continued to take risk off shrinking what was a record long position as a vast majority of crops are now in the ground. Emergence continues to be strong, and conditions are showing optimal conditions as crop ratings are on the high side of previous years. Globally the South America 2nd crop corn is in full harvest and providing additional downward pressure as it comes to market.

Corn

Corn futures had been down most of the week before rebounding off a new low Friday and having a strong finish to the week. Both the July and Dec futures had traded to new contract lows on Friday morning before finding support. USDA’s June WASDE still had a large 2026/27 U.S. crop at 15.9 billion bushels, down from last year but still historically large, with ending stocks projected at 1.957 billion bushels.

Farmer takeaway: Corn has been falling into the trend of making lower lows and lower highs. Know your estimated yield and make sure to reward any rallies the market may give now that we are in the post-planting window.

Soybeans

Soybeans traded in a relative sideways range this week with the USDA report providing no real push in either direction. USDA report for June showed no change in projected 2026/27 U.S. soybean production at 4.435 billion bushels, with no change in expected ending stocks. Soybeans are being driven heavily by headlines as we navigate international trade, domestic renewable fuel requirements, and crush margins.

Farmer takeaway: Soybeans are still holding on in terms of price levels as we enter the summer. Calculate your personal production and make to lock in profit when the market gives that opportunity.

Wheat

Wheat was the relative bright spot after USDA trimmed U.S. wheat production. Chicago SRW stayed range bound which was a welcome change from trading lower the past month. USDA lowered projected U.S. wheat production to 1.543 billion bushels, which is the lowest production going back to the 1970’s. Plains drought losses, cut projected wheat ending stocks to 744 million bushels.

Farmer takeaway: Wheat has bounced slightly from recent lows but remains far below May highs. Watch harvest pressure, vomitoxins, and any selling opportunities.

What We’re Watching Next

Weather: Corn and soybean markets are trading favorable Midwest weather; wheat remains focused on harvest conditions and Plains drought impacts.
Exports: USDA raised corn export expectations but lowered soybean exports again, keeping demand questions front and center.
June 30 Reports: USDA’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports are the next major market-moving events.
Outside markets: Crude oil, soybean oil, fertilizer, freight, and currency moves continue to influence futures sentiment and local basis.

Marketing Thought

With corn at a two-month low and soybeans/wheat only modestly above recent lows, basis and discipline matter. Keep breakevens updated, keep target offers working, and consider using futures or basis rallies to price incremental bushels.

Contact our merchandising team for current bids, basis levels, and contract alternatives.

Futures and basis are subject to change. This update is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell futures or cash grain.